Why is RTE worried about electricity supply?
The health crisis linked to COVID-19 has an impact on the availability of means of electricity production, in particular with the reduction in the availability of nuclear fleet. Since this summer, the electricity transmission network manager (RTE) has placed supply for winter 2020-2021 under particular vigilance. These prospects have been reassessed slightly upwards since November 2020, but uncertainties remain for the start of 2021.
Factors impacting electricity supply for winter 2020-2021
The health crisis and the first confinement from March 2020 affected the development of new production facilities, as well as planned maintenance on certain production plants. These extended outages result in historically low availability. On April 16, 2020, EDF announced a reduction in its nuclear estimate for 2020, 2021 and 2022. Thus, for the year 2020, the producer estimated in April this reduction at around 300 TWh compared to a target of 375 to 390 TWh before the COVID crisis.
In its preliminary analysis on the outlook for winter 2020-2021, published on June 11, 2020 ( source , pdf file), RTE notes a “situation of particular vigilance”, with a risk of imbalance in the event of an early cold snap.
Particular vigilance for the start of 2021
In a new analysis published in mid-November 2020 ( source , pdf file), the manager estimates the availability of nuclear power slightly upwards compared to forecasts from mid-June . During the summer , even though electricity consumption returned to a level close to normal, the low availability of the nuclear fleet (around 30 GW) was balanced by increased use of thermal means. But also imports, while the country is usually an exporter during the summer period .
However, there is always a point of vigilance in winter in the event of a cold snap, if temperatures are 2 to 7° below seasonal norms over several consecutive days. The evolution of consumption will also depend on that of the health and economic situation : at the end of August and the beginning of September, electricity consumption was still down 3 to 4% compared to its nominal level according to RTE.
In February and March, the estimated risk is greater, with 13 reactors shut down following postponements of maintenance programs.
To balance supply and demand, recourse to post-market resources and recourse to imports are likely. All means of production, including fossil fuels, may be used, as well as means of erasure . RTE also mentions the possibility of targeted household load shedding, but excludes a risk of blackout.
